Australasian Political Studies Association Conference 2003
Hosted by the School of Government
University of Tasmania

Australian and New Zealand Politics Stream

Ideological Change in the Australian Electorate, 1987 to 2002

Simon Jackman
Department of Political Science
Stanford University

Abstract:

Many commentators have speculated that under the Hawke and Keating Labor governments, and more recently, the Howard Coalition government, Australian political ideology has moved to the right. Over this period Labor governments pursued policies of economic rationalism, and the Howard government emphasizing national security, some argue that there has been a transformation of sorts, that Australians (on average) are more conservative on a host of political, economic and social issues. Some observers attribute ideological change to the particular policy emphases and preferences of the specific prime ministers in this period (Hawke, Keating, and Howard), concluding that these prime ministers have “left their stamp” on the Australian electorate. I subject these claims to rigorous scientific scrutiny using data from the Australian Election Studies. Using a measurement model designed to pool multiple surveys, I consider the extent to which Australian political ideology has changed over time. In particular, I consider the political sociology of ideological change, asking who (if anyone) has become more conservative, and with respect to which particular dimension of political ideology. I test a “top-down” model of ideological change, in which political activists and citizens with high levels of political interest alter their views ahead of ideological change in the broader electorate. My empirical investigation is also alert to other possible mechanisms of ideological change, including generational turnover (the time period under study is sufficiently lengthy for this to be a plausible mechanism) and changes attributable to changing work patterns (de-unionization, the rise of the information economy, and a shift from full-time to part-time work).