In today's rapidly changing world, the ability to make informed decisions about the future is more important than ever, and this unit offers students the essential knowledge and techniques to make informative forecasts and to succeed in decision-making activities in economics, business, government, and many other fields. Throughout the unit, students will learn various reliable forecasting techniques, including the decomposition of time series, exponential smoothing methods, ARIMA modelling and forecast combinations. These methods will be applied to real-world economic data, providing students with practical experience in analysing and interpreting economic trends. In addition to technical skills, the unit will also cover key theoretical concepts and principles that underlie forecasting. These include an understanding of successful forecasts, and the limitations and uncertainties of forecasting. This unit is particularly relevant for students in economics, finance, business, and related fields who are interested in pursuing careers in analysing data, forecasting, consulting, strategic planning, or policy making.
|Unit name||Forecasting for Economic Decision-Making|
|College/School||College of Business & Economics
Tasmanian School of Business and Economics
|Coordinator||Doctor Jing Tian|
|Available as an elective?||No|
|Delivered By||University of Tasmania and Third Party(ies): ECA|
|Location||Study period||Attendance options||Available to|
- International students
- Domestic students
Please check that your computer meets the minimum System Requirements if you are attending via Distance/Off-Campus.
Units are offered in attending mode unless otherwise indicated (that is attendance is required at the campus identified). A unit identified as offered by distance, that is there is no requirement for attendance, is identified with a nominal enrolment campus. A unit offered to both attending students and by distance from the same campus is identified as having both modes of study.
|Study Period||Start date||Census date||WW date||End date|
* The Final WW Date is the final date from which you can withdraw from the unit without academic penalty, however you will still incur a financial liability (refer to How do I withdraw from a unit? for more information).
Unit census dates currently displaying for 2024 are indicative and subject to change. Finalised census dates for 2024 will be available from the 1st October 2023. Note census date cutoff is 11.59pm AEST (AEDT during October to March).
- Demonstrate concepts in forecasting and how forecasting is used in economics and business.
- Select data and apply appropriate methods to forecast economic and business variables.
- Evaluate forecasting models in the context of their economic or business application and statistical properties.
- Use statistical software, interpret output from statistical software and effectively communicate results.
|Field of Education||Commencing Student Contribution 1,3||Grandfathered Student Contribution 1,3||Approved Pathway Course Student Contribution 2,3||Domestic Full Fee 4|
1 Please refer to more information on student contribution amounts.
2 Please refer to more information on eligibility and Approved Pathway courses.
3 Please refer to more information on eligibility for HECS-HELP.
4 Please refer to more information on eligibility for FEE-HELP.
Please note: international students should refer to What is an indicative Fee? to get an indicative course cost.
|Assessment||Project Part A: Proposal (10%)|Project Part B: Selecting Forecasting Methods (20%)|Project Part C: Complete Project (30%)|Final Take-Home Exam (40%)|
|Timetable||View the lecture timetable | View the full unit timetable|
You will need the following text:
Carter Hill, R, Griffiths William E., and GC Lim, 2008, Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition, Wiley, ISBN 9780471723608.
It is available to purchase from Booktopia. If you have the fourth or fifth edition of this textbook it will be a very good substitute.
The prescribed software is
EViews 10 Standard - Student Version
It is available in the TEAL and Library computer labs.
The lecture notes, prescribed text and recommended readings should be sufficient. However, you may wish to read other texts to receive a different approach to a topic. Some of the following texts are, more advanced than the prescribed text while others are less advanced. For example Guajarati and Griffiths et. al.’s undergraduate book have chapters on some of the topics that we will be covering this year, but they are normally explained using summation notation and not matrix algebra as used in BEA342. In addition, we will cover some aspects of the topics in more detail than these texts.
Greene, W.H., Econometric Analysis, Fifth Edition, Prentice Hall, 2003. (Comprehensive and Very Detailed)
Griffiths, W. E., Hill, C. R., and Judge, G. G. Undergraduate Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, 2nd Ed, 2001. (Similar to Gujariti, does not use matrix algebra)
Griffiths, W. E., Hill, C. R., and Judge, G. G. Learning and Practicing Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, 1993. (Similar to Vogelvang, a little more detail, contains matrix algebra)
Johnston, J. and Dinardo, J., Econometric Methods, Fourth Edition, McGraw Hill, 1997. (Similar to Vogelvang, contains matrix algebra)
Judge, G.G., Hill, C.R., Griffiths, W.E., Lutkepohl, H. and Lee, T.C., Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics, John Wiley, Second Edition, 1988. (Similar to Vogelvang, a little more detail, contains matrix algebra)
Judge, G.G., Hill, C.R., Griffiths, W.E., Lutkepohl, H. and Lee, T.C., The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, John Wiley, Second Edition, 1985. (Similar to Vogelvang, a little more detail, contains matrix algebra)
Stock, J.H. and M.H. Watson, Introduction to Econometrics, Addison Wesley, 2003. (Similar to Gujariti but much less detail, does not use matrix algebra)
Wooldridge, J.M., Introductory Econometrics, Thomson, 2003.
|Links||Booktopia textbook finder|
The University reserves the right to amend or remove courses and unit availabilities, as appropriate.