Bao Nguyen

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Bao Nguyen

Lecturer in Economics

Room 111 , Building D

+61 3 6324 3229 (phone)

Bao Nguyen is a Lecturer of Economics at the Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania. He is also a research associate of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University. His research interests are in the areas of Applied Macroeconomics and Energy Economics.


Bao joined University of Tasmania in February 2020. Prior to that, he held academic positions at Australian National University, University of Papua New Guinea, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City and Harvard Program in Vietnam.

Career summary


Degree Thesis titleUniversityCountry Date of award

PhD in Economics

Essays in the Application of Linear and Non-linear Bayesian VAR Models to the Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Price Shocks

Australian National University



Master in Development Economics

Analysis of the Factors Impacting on Inflation in Vietnam 1995--2007 by Using the P--Star Model

University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City



Bachelor of Economics (Honours)


University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City



Languages (other than English)

  • Vietnamese (native)


Professional practice

  • Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University


Teaching expertise

Bao has more than 10 years of teaching experience at undergraduate and postgraduate levels at various universities. His recent courses include Quantitative Economics, Principles of Economics, Intermediate Microeconomics, Intermediate Macroeconomics.

Teaching responsibility

View more on Dr Bao Nguyen in WARP


  • Applied macroeconomics
  • International macroeconomics
  • Energy economics
  • Asian and Pacific Economics

Research Themes

Bao current research focuses on applied macroeconomics, especially the relationship between energy and commodity price dynamics and macroeconomic performance on various economies. In particular, he employs the Bayesian Vector Autoregression (VAR), time-varying VAR, smooth transition VAR and Markov switching VAR model to examine the macroeconomic effects of crude oil, coal, iron ore, natural gas price shocks on the US, Chinese and Australian economy. My research has been published in peer reviewed international journals such as Energy Economics and Economic Record.

Current projects

  • Forecasting natural gas prices using time-varying parameter models
  • The role of uncertainty and speculative trading in the market for crude oil
  • Uncertainty and sing-dependent effects of oil market shocks

Fields of Research

  • Macroeconomics (incl. monetary and fiscal theory) (380112)
  • Econometric and statistical methods (380202)

Research Objectives

  • Macroeconomics (150299)
  • Economic growth (150203)


Total publications


Journal Article

(8 outputs)
2022Nguyen BH, Okimoto T, Tran TD, 'Uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks', Journal of Commodity Markets Article 100207. ISSN 2405-8513 (In Press) [Refereed Article]

DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2021.100207 [eCite] [Details]


2021Cross JL, Hou CH, Nguyen BH, 'On the China factor in the world oil market: A regime switching approach', Energy Economics, 95 Article 105119. ISSN 0140-9883 (2021) [Refereed Article]

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105119 [eCite] [Details]

Citations: Scopus - 2Web of Science - 1


2021Gao S, Hou C, Nguyen BH, 'Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models', Economic Modelling, 105 Article 105652. ISSN 0264-9993 (2021) [Refereed Article]

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105652 [eCite] [Details]


2019Nguyen BH, Okimoto T, 'Asymmetric reactions of the US natural gas market and economic activity', Energy Economics, 80, (C) pp. 86-99. ISSN 0140-9883 (2019) [Refereed Article]

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.12.015 [eCite] [Details]

Citations: Scopus - 7Web of Science - 6


2018Cross J, Nguyen BH, 'Time varying macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks: A new measure for China', Energy Economics, 73 pp. 146-160. ISSN 0140-9883 (2018) [Refereed Article]

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.05.014 [eCite] [Details]

Citations: Scopus - 6Web of Science - 6


2018Hoang NT, Nguyen BH, 'Oil and iron ore price shocks: What are the different economic effects in Australia?', The Economic Record, 49, (305) pp. 1-18. ISSN 0013-0249 (2018) [Refereed Article]

DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.12398 [eCite] [Details]

Citations: Scopus - 8Web of Science - 7


2018Hou C, Nguyen BH, 'Understanding the US natural gas market: A Markov switching VAR approach', Energy Economics, 75 pp. 42-53. ISSN 0140-9883 (2018) [Refereed Article]

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.08.004 [eCite] [Details]

Citations: Scopus - 16Web of Science - 13


2017Cross J, Nguyen BH, 'The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis', Energy Economics, 62 pp. 79-91. ISSN 0140-9883 (2017) [Refereed Article]

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.12.014 [eCite] [Details]

Citations: Scopus - 43Web of Science - 41