Forecasting for Economic Decision-Making unit (BEA342)

Melbourne Study Centre, Hobart, Online

Introduction

In today's rapidly changing world, the ability to make informed decisions about the future is more important than ever, and this unit offers students the essential knowledge and techniques to make informative forecasts and to succeed in decision-making activities in economics, business, government, and many other fields. Throughout the unit, students will learn various reliable forecasting techniques, including the decomposition of time series, exponential smoothing methods, ARIMA modelling and forecast combinations. These methods will be applied to real-world economic data, providing students with practical experience in analysing and interpreting economic trends. In addition to technical skills, the unit will also cover key theoretical concepts and principles that underlie forecasting. These include an understanding of successful forecasts, and the limitations and uncertainties of forecasting. This unit is particularly relevant for students in economics, finance, business, and related fields who are interested in pursuing careers in analysing data, forecasting, consulting, strategic planning, or policy making.

Summary

Unit name	Forecasting for Economic Decision-Making
Unit code	BEA342
Credit points	12.5
College/School	Tasmanian School of Business and Economics
Discipline	Economics
Coordinator	Associate Professor Jing Tian
Available as an elective?	Yes
Delivered By	University of Tasmania and Third Party(ies): ECA
Level	Advanced

Availability

Specific information on 2027 unit availability will be available in August

Key Dates

Study Period	Start date	Census date	WW date	End date
Semester 2	4/7/2027	26/7/2027	29/8/2027	23/10/2027

* The Final WW Date is the final date from which you can withdraw from the unit without academic penalty, however you will still incur a financial liability (refer to How do I withdraw from a unit? for more information).

Unit census dates currently displaying for 2027 are indicative and subject to change. Finalised census dates for 2027 will be available from the 1st October 2026. Note census date cutoff is 11.59pm AEST (AEDT during October to March).

About Census Dates

Learning Outcomes

• Analyse key concepts in forecasting and assess their relevance to economics and business decision-making.
• Select suitable and relevant data and apply appropriate forecasting methods to forecast economic and business variables.
• Critically evaluate forecasting models in the context of their economic or business application and statistical properties.
• Apply Excel to perform forecasting tasks, interpret the output and effectively communicate the results in an economic and business context.

Fee Information

2027 fee information will be available in August.

Requisites

Prerequisites

Any statistics unit or BEA140

Teaching

Teaching Pattern	All students:  pre-recorded lecture, once a week On campus students: 2hr workshop, weekly, commencing in week 1 Online students: 2hr workshop, weekly, commencing in week 1
Assessment	Project Part A: Introduction and Data (20%)|Project Part B: Selecting Forecasting Methods (20%)|Project Part C: Forecasting Results, Conclusion and Full Report (20%)|Final Take-Home Exam (40%)
Timetable	View the lecture timetable | View the full unit timetable

Textbooks

Required	You will need the following text: Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, 2021, Forecasting: Principles and Practice, 3 rd Edition, O TEXTS. It is available online for free. The prescribed software is MS Excel, R or Eviews. It can be installed to a personal laptop or a desktop.
Recommended	The lecture notes, prescribed text and recommended readings should be sufficient. However, you may wish to read other texts to receive a different approach to a topic. Diebold, F. X., Elements of Forecasting, 3rd Edition, Thomson South-Western Enders, W., Applied Econometric Time Series, 3rd Edition, Wiley

The University reserves the right to amend or remove courses and unit availabilities, as appropriate.