Climate effects on giant crab and southern rock lobster populations

About the research project

Climate change is altering marine ecosystems worldwide through increasing ocean temperatures, marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, changes in primary productivity, and shifts in ocean circulation. These changes are affecting species distributions, population productivity, recruitment processes, and fisheries yields, creating significant challenges for fisheries management and adaptation. South-eastern Australia is recognised as a global hotspot of ocean warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing substantially over recent decades and projected to continue rising. Marine heatwaves have become more frequent and intense, while the strengthening of the East Australian Current is altering regional oceanography, species distributions, and connectivity patterns across Tasmanian waters.

Crustacean fisheries are particularly sensitive to climate-driven environmental change because their population dynamics depend heavily on processes occurring during early life stages. Larval transport, settlement success, and recruitment are strongly influenced by oceanographic conditions. Changes in these processes, together with life-cycle traits such as slow growth, low productivity, variable recruitment, and relatively limited post-settlement movement, may have long-lasting consequences for stock productivity and fishery performance.

Understanding the future resilience of crustacean fisheries therefore requires integration of vulnerability assessment with mechanistic approaches that explicitly represent the biological processes linking climate variability to population dynamics. In species such as giant crab and southern rock lobster, recruitment is strongly influenced by larval survival, dispersal, settlement, and connectivity, all of which are affected by oceanographic and environmental conditions. Quantifying these processes provides a means of translating climate exposure into recruitment outcomes and, ultimately, population-level responses. This project will therefore combine climate vulnerability assessment, larval connectivity modelling, climate-driven recruitment projections, and population dynamics modelling to evaluate how future environmental change may affect productivity and resilience in Tasmania's major potting crustacean fisheries. By linking climate drivers to ecological mechanisms and stock-level consequences, the project will provide a comprehensive assessment of climate risk.

Main objective

Assess how climate change may affect giant crab and southern rock lobster populations to support management.

Specific objectives

• Assess and compare the climate vulnerability of giant crab and southern rock lobster using a standardised vulnerability assessment framework
• Assess larval connectivity and recruitment dynamics in giant crab under contemporary oceanographic conditions.
• Assess how future climate conditions may alter larval survival, dispersal, connectivity, and recruitment potential in giant crab and southern rock lobster.
• Evaluate how climate-driven changes in recruitment may affect stock trajectories in giant crab and southern rock lobster.

Alternate location

IMAS Taroona

Primary supervisor

Meet Doctor Rafael Leon Leiva

Funding

Applicants will be considered for a Research Training Program (RTP) scholarship or Tasmania Graduate Research Scholarship (TGRS) which, if successful, provides:

• a living allowance stipend funded by University of Tasmania of $34,315 per annum for 3.5 years
• a relocation allowance of up to $2,000
• a tuition fees offset covering the cost of tuition fees for up to four years (domestic applicants only)

A tuition fee offset may be offered to eligible international applicants following competitive assessment 

As part of the application process you may indicate if you do not wish to be considered for scholarship funding.

Other funding opportunities and fees

For further information regarding other scholarships on offer, and the various fees for undertaking a research degree, please visit our Scholarships and fees on research degrees page.

Eligibility

Applicants should review the Higher Degree by Research minimum entry requirements.

Ensure your eligibility for the scholarship round by referring to our Key Dates.

Additional eligibility criteria specific to this project/scholarship:

• Honours or Master’s degree, or equivalent research experience, in marine science, fisheries science, quantitative ecology, oceanography, data analysis or a related discipline.
• Strong scientific writing skills, including the ability to prepare manuscripts for peer-reviewed journals, as demonstrated by published research.
• Ability to work independently while engaging with supervisors.

Selection criteria

The project is competitively assessed and awarded. Selection is based on academic merit and suitability to the project as determined by the College.

Additional essential selection criteria specific to this project:

• Strong quantitative skills, including statistical modelling, simulation modelling, or spatial analysis.
• Programming experience (e.g. R, Python, MATLAB, or similar).
• Understanding of population dynamics, recruitment processes, or fisheries stock assessment.

Additional desirable selection criteria specific to this project:

• Experience working with fisheries-dependent or fisheries-independent data.
• Experience communicating scientific results to managers or industry.

Application process

1. Select your project, and check that you meet the eligibility and selection criteria, including citizenship;
2. Contact Doctor Rafael Leon Leiva to discuss your suitability and the project's requirements; and
3. In your application:
   • Copy and paste the title of the project from this advertisement into your application. If you don’t correctly do this your application may be rejected.
   • Submit a signed supervisory support form, a CV including contact details of 2 referees and your project research proposal.
4. Apply prior to 1 October 2026.

Full details of the application process can be found under the ' How to apply ' section of the Research Degrees website.

Following the closing date applications will be assessed within the College. Applicants should expect to receive notification of the outcome by email by the advertised outcome date.

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